Sesizasem ca ieri, marti, toata lumea sarise sa ironizeze miscarea politica a formarii PDL si se crampona de modul in care fusese facut anuntul. Ceea ce, ca si mod de comunicare si mesaj a fost destul de jalnic executat.
In timpul asta vorbeam cu Ionut (coleg in Agentie si autor la blog) si incercam sa ii dau argumente despre de ce cred ca cei/cel care a/au gandit fuziunea/formarea noului partid, acum, in acest moment, a/au avut pana la un punct, dreptate. Adica, ce argumente a/au avut, si anume argumente de tehnica politica.
Si am zis sa le discutam si pe blog.
Drept urmare, Ionut a scris cateva idei „contra”, cele care ar fi trebuit sa figureze la capitolul de „risc”, pe tabla celor care au calculat aceasta mutare politica. Si nu e orice mutare politica.
Intre timp si Evenimentul Zilei a publicat ceva pe tema asta.
Argumente „pentru” formarea PDL, by Cristi
1. PD nu a reusit sa produca lideri, de tip „locomotiva” electorala, Asta s-a resimtit in alegerile europene. Formula cu Basescu lider „implicit” nu a functionat decat partial si e foarte greu de construit o campanie pe baza ei. De aceea, adaugarea lui Stolojan in conducerea noului partid asigura cel putin teoretic existenta acestui tip de lider. Exista si precedentul PNL unde adaugarea lui Stolojan la portofoliul PNL a „urnit” bazinul electoral al PNL.
2. Este momentul in care bazinele celor doua partide au un maxim istoric si se poate construi pe o campanie de comunicare band-wagon ideea progresiei electorale permanente a acestui pol si cresterea puterii lui electorale.
3. O relatie confuza intre cele doua partide ar fi repetat episodul ADA, in care cele doua partide s-au devorat reciproc. In plus, maxim unul din partide ar fi iesit invingator dintr-o relatie incalcita, iar la nivel local candidaturile separate in alegerile locale ar fi epuizat acest bazin si culoar de oportuntiate.
4. Posibilitatea ca PSD si PNL sa impuna alegerile parlamentare inca din iunie 2008, odata cu localele, nu ar fi dat timp si ocazia consolidarii unei noi formatiuni mai tarziu.
5. Formarea unei noi formatiuni, partid sau alianta, are nevoie de o perioada de „acomodare” electorala, prin campanie de crestere a notorietatii numelui dar si de popularizare a mecanismului de asociere PLD-PD, de popularizare a asocierii lui Stolojan cu noul partid samd
6. PLD este greu sa creasca mai mult, avand in vedere dimensiunea bazinului de electori liberali din Romania si faptul ca singurul mesaj al PLD a fost ca e condus de Stolojan.
7. Dorinta lui Traian Basescu de a avea un candidat la functia de prim-ministru din partea noului pol de putere care s-ar configura in jurul PD.
8. Basescu are nevoie de un partid puternic pentru a candida din nou in 2009. Experienta dezbinarii CDR din 1999-2000 care nu a oferit suport pentru candidatul acestor forte politice, precum si incoerentele interne din PSD din 2004 reprezinta cazurile de evitat pentru Basescu.
Argumente „contra” formarii PDL, by Ionut
1. PLD nu a avut timp sa isi consolideze electoratul. Astfel, bazinul electoral nu poate fi consolidat, fidelizat si pregatit pentru fuziune, nefiind nici macar bine identificat, pentru a putea securiza dizvolarea partidului intr-o noua structura politica.
2. Identitatea PLD este incerta si va ramane asa in mod definitiv: este un partid liberal care „salveaza” electoratul de PNL, sau este doar un mijloc de erodare a PNL?
3. Decizia de creare a PDL a venit in mod evident in contra declaratiilor si starilor de fapt inregistrate si consemnate public in interiorul celor doua partide inainte si dupa euroalegeri. Astfel, creatia pare a fi fortata, grabita si se accentueaza faptul ca noul partid are doar un profil prezidential. PDL pare a fi, astfel, nu un proiect politic PD+PLD, ci unul al lui Traian Basescu.
4. Cum se vor armoniza interesele liderilor din cele doua partide si ale organizatiilor ca atare? Vor reusi in acest scurt rastimp sa promveze unitar aceleasi proiecte si sa aiba aceleasi scopuri?
Cristi, adica partea pro a demonstratiei: Cred ca punctele 2) si 4) sunt contestabile. Nu se poate vorbi de un maxim istoric al bazinelor celor doua partide in conditiile in care PLD nu a atrecut decat printr-un singur test electoral iar PD are (daca e sa credem sondajele) potential de mai bine in cazul unei mai bune prezente la vot. Cat despre devansarea parlamentarelor, e destul de putin probabil ca PNL si PSD sa mizeze pe asta, in conditiile in care asocierea locale/parlamentare ar favoriza PDL (prin fostul PD) pentru ca acesta domina primariile.
Si eu initial am criticat momentul in care a fost luata decizia si apoi comunicata decizia de formare a PDL. Insa, desi inca mai cred ca momentul e prost ales, cred ca e mult mai important cum e comunicata miscarea…
Pingback: Despre PDL « MoROmeTe says
Exista un alt argument, valabil inca de prin 2005. Daca ne uitam la declaratiile de la acea vreme:
PNL-ul a fost in mod natural inclinat spre PSD.
“Vicele Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, artizanul protocolului, a tinut sa-l atinga in treacat pe Valeriu Stoica, pentru faptul ca acesta isi aroga meritul de a se fi gandit primul la alianta cu pedistii. “A fost nevoie sa vina Theodor Stolojan pentru ca sa terminam odata cu intelegerile de culise si ambiguitatile in relatia cu PSD”. / ” sursa http://www.adevarulonline.ro/articole/stolojan-sa-si-faca-bagajele-si-sa-plece-spre-cotroceni/54507
Deci este doar intoarcere “la natura”
Mai ales ca “natura” era bine directionata si stia bine ce urmarea.
Explicatia ne-o ofera Vasile Dincu, vicepresedinte PSD responsabil cu analiza politica:
„Interesul PSD este pentru adincirea prapastiei dintre PNL si PD. Noi le intindem o mina liberalilor, apoi le-o retragem. Ca intr-o caricatura pe care am vazut-o intr-un ziar occidental, cu un tip care sta sa se inece si altul care-i intinde mina in semn de salut“.
La rindul sau, liderul PSD Mircea Geoana spune ca disponibilitatea PSD fata de un guvern monocolor PNL este conditionata de spargerea Aliantei. „Noi nu sprijinim un guvern al Aliantei. Daca ei se sparg putem discuta… Dar cu Alianta nu avem ce discuta“. / sursa http://www.cotidianul.ro/index.php?id=8739&art=22803&cHash=f20161ae75
Si de ce toate aceastea …
“Ar fi fost o miscare politica amenintatoare pentru noi, pentru social-democrati, pentru ca in loc sa avem doua jumatati de partide in fata aveam un partid mare, liberal-democrat, care este un curent puternic in Europa si in SUA. autorul declaratiilor Alin Teodorescu
sursa http://www.ziua.ro/display.php?data=2006-06-23&id=202187
Asta ar putea fi logica sperieturii. Mai ramane ca pdl-ul sa si onoreze succesul curentului liberal-democrat de pe alte meleaguri. Vedem ce va fi.
DACA informatia mea este corecta, PSD-ul si-a fundamentat strategia ( in 2005) pe un studiu detaliat (facut de imas ?). Acel studiu a tatonat posibilele reactii ale electoratului in fata unei “oferte combinate”, liberal- democrat la pachet. Se pare ca rezultatele nu au fost cele mai placute psd-ului.
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