In masura in care cresterea in sondaje a PPDD sesizata in ultimele saptamani se mentine, ea poate afecta calculele pe care candidatii USL si PDL si le fac despre “eligibilitatea” colegiilor. Aceasta se poate intampla in special in colegiile de deputat care contin orase sau parti de orase medii, cu populatii intre 30.000-150.000 locuitori, acolo unde se afla bazinul de vot favorabil PPDD si cu precadere in Muntenia si Moldova. Mai ales ca in aceste orase, cu cat sunt mai mari, votul e mai greu de controlat de catre primar si de partidele “mari”.
Acest fenomen poate influenta modul in care se aleg castigatorii in astfel de colegii. Pe simularea electorala pe rezultatele de la alegerile locale facuta de Agentia de Rating Politic foarte multe colegii reveneau direct cu 50%+1 USL, dar la limita, cu cateva voturi peste. O crestere a PPDD ar duce acolo la o scadere a candidatului USL sub 50% si in consecinta la o reordonare a castigatorilor din tot judetul respectiv.
Aceasta se intampla deoarece in multe judete USL pierde acele mandate unde candidatii sai nu fac 50%+1, colegii care prin redistribuire ajung la PDL sau PPDD. Daca fenomenul de scadere a USL sub 50%+1 se petrece in mai multe colegii dintr-un judet, atunci re-alocarea mandatelor castigatoare afecteaza si mai multe colegii din acel judet.
Evident, afectati sunt si candidatii USL dar si cei ai PDL care se vad aruncati intr-o loterie a redistribuirii si mai mare, care pe Simularile si calculele pe care toti si le-au facut nu putea fi decat partial intuita.
Acesta e un factor nou care introduce imprevizibil in ecuatia alegerilor. El se adauga la vesnica problema a “participarii” care fata de alegerile locale si simularile aferente pare ca va fi semnificativ mai mica si mai ales tot in zonele urbane, dar si la problema asa numitelor “non combaturi”, colegii in care candidati ai unui partid sunt pusi sa candideze “de forma” ca sa ajute un candidat al aceluiasi partid din alt colegiu din acel judet.
Daca primele doua chestiuni se pot “regla” prin sondaje de calibrare, ultima e o chestiune punctuala, tratabila de la caz la caz.
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