Alegeri anticipate deodată cu alegeri locale – adică în iunie 2016 – înseamnă, tehnic, un avantaj pentru ceea ce se cheamă, în teorie, “partide MARI”. Pentru că:
1. Interesul va fi mai mare pentru alegerile locale, iar partidele mari vor fi reprezentate în primul rând in fata oamenilor de primari și candidații pentru primari (PSD si PNL dețin peste 80% din primari). Aceștia au o credibilitate mult mai ridicată, de regulă, decât parlamentarii sau liderii naționali. Liderii naționali vor sta “spatele primarilor”.
2. Mobilizarea rețelelor și structurilor de partid locale, datorită alegerilor locale, va fi maximă. Partidele mari au astfel de structuri: de moblizare, de campanie și de verificare a votului. Noile branduri politice nu le vor avea.
3. Timpul pentru evoluția unui brand politic nou – reprezentativ pentru protestatari – este mult scurtat: de la 1 an la 6 luni (iunie 2016 – locale, față de decembrie 2016 – termenul normal pentru parlamentare).
4. Recrutarea de candidați pentru un brand politic nou va fi de cel puțin 2 ori mai dificilă pentru un brand nou: să găsească atât candidați pentru alegerile locale cât și pentru parlamentare. La locale este vorba de aprox. 3200 de candidați de primari, de zeci de mii de candidați pentru Consilii locale și de peste 1000 de candidați pentru Consilii județene (dacă își propun să acopere toată țara). La Parlament e vorba doar de o listă de aprox. 450 de persoane, din care doar maxim 100 ar fi realist eligibili – deci mult mai simplu.
5. Alegerile locale înseamnă o participare, numeric vorbind, mult mai mare față de parlamentare (55% față de aprox 37-40%) – datorită aceluiași interes față de treburile urbei. La o participare mai mică, dacă ar avea loc exclusiv alegeri parlamentare, un brand politic nou, cu o moblizare bună a segmentului de indignați/protestatari ar fi avantajat, ar scoate un scor mult mai bun, relativ la cei prezenți la vot. Așa însă, cu primarii în prim plan, dacă alegerile sunt suprapuse, și cu o moblizare locală mare, sunt avantajate iar partidele mari, cota de indignați/protestatari relativ la totalul votanților fiind mult mai mică. O chestiune de proporții așadar.
6. În final, o perspectivă de sistem electoral: alegeri parlamentare în sistem proporțional, cu listă, separate de locale, ar avantaja mult mai mult noile branduri politice și fragmentarea Parlamentului – tendința oamenilor într-un asemenea sistem este de a vota și partide mici, opțiuni noi, excotice chiar. În schimb, accentul mutându-se pe alegerile locale, unde predomină voul majoritar pentru primar într-un tur, logica electorală va fi împinsă către o luptă 1 la 1, între PNL și PSD, între partidele mari (e vorba de efectul majoritar) – în care partidele mici sau noi vor fi împinse către margine, datorită votului “util”.
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