Barometrul jurnaliștilor politici – prima ediție
București, 19 aprilie 2022: Agenția de Rating Politic lansează un nou produs pentru România, un studiu realizat pe un panel de 40 de jurnaliști politici, cu experiență medie de 20 de ani în presa din România, care provin din 27 de redacții diferite. Raportul este unul complet nou pentru țara noastră și urmărește să evalueze, periodic, riscul politic dintr-o perspectivă diferită.
Am invitat jurnaliști din toate tipurile de presă – tv, radio, presă scrisă și online, agenții de presă – să răspundă periodic la întrebările unui sondaj despre cum se conturează evenimente și tendințe viitoare. Prima ediție a acestui barometru a fost realizată între 29 martie și 6 aprilie 2022.
Pentru că este un raport de risc politic, el se concentrează pe posibilități și scenarii viitoare. El poate fi util: jurnaliștilor care urmăresc evenimentele politice, politicienilor care vor să acționeze și să comunice mai eficient, decidenților care vor să anticipeze evenimente și impactul unor decizii, analiștilor și cercetătorilor care studiază spațiul public.
Concluzii – Cum văd jurnaliștii politici următoarele luni:
Inflația și economia vor domina agenda, educația ar putea preocupa mai mult politicienii, opoziția nu se va impune, tensiunea socială este moderată dar poate crește mult, sistemul politic rămâne stabil, știrile false și campaniile de dezinformare au un impact mare, iar războiul din Ucraina ar putea dura sub 1 an. Pe termen lung, pericolele pentru democrație vin din statul slăbit și extremism. Anul electoral 2024 nu este clar conturat încă.
Inflația și situația economică sunt de departe temele care vor marca următoarele 3 luni, în opinia jurnaliștilor din panel (peste jumătate dintre ei). Aceste teme reprezintă și riscul major pentru România pe termen mai lung, pentru următorul an de zile (două treimi dintre respondenți). *Am cerut jurnaliștilor să se gândească la orice teme în afara războiului din Ucraina.
Pe termen mai lung, în următorii ani, principalele pericole pentru democrație în România sunt identificate într-un stat slăbit (22,5%) și în extremism (20%).
Între temele de interes pentru public cărora politicienii ar putea să le acorde mai mult interes jurnaliștii punctează: educația (25%), radicalizarea politică (15%), corupția (15%), polarizarea socială (15%).
Între riscurile analizate la propunerea Agenției de Rating Politic, știrile false și campaniile de dezinformare au un impact mare și foarte mare în România în viziunea a peste 90% dintre jurnaliști.
La nivelul sistemului politic, pentru următoarele trei luni, jurnaliștii văd o opoziție fără impact în acțiunile sale (nota medie 1,5 din 5 maxim) și o coaliție la putere care va reuși la un nivel moderat să-și impună obiectivele (nota medie 3,2 din 5 maxim).
Liderii politici care se vor afla în următoarele trei luni în centrul atenției sunt, pentru vasta majoritate a respondenților noștri: Nicolae Ciucă (85%), Marcel Ciolacu (80%) și Klaus Iohannis (72,5%). Nici un lider al opoziției nu are o prezență semnificativă în această listă.
Tensiunea socială, în viziunea jurnaliștilor, este la un nivel ușor peste medie (nota medie: 5,9 din 10 maxim tensiune socială), dar cu o perspectivă foarte mare de creștere în următorul an (72,5% văd o creștere a tensiunii sociale). În același timp, stabilitatea sistemului politic este văzută mai degrabă ca moderată (nota medie: 6,6 din 10 maxim stabilitate politică) cu o perspectivă de conservare pentru următorul an (57,5% spun că nivelul de stabilitate va rămâne la fel).
Privind mai departe spre 2024, jurnaliștii politici sunt împărțiți aproape egal când vine vorba despre posibilitatea comasării sau nu a alegerilor locale și parlamentare. Nu există un „verdict” clar. De asemenea, posibilitatea ca structura actuală de partide putere-opoziție „să se schimbe” sau „să rămână la fel” este egal distribuită între respondenții panelului nostru (jumătate-jumătate).
În privința războiului din Ucraina, aproape o jumătate (47%) spune că va dura sub un an, dar există o diversitate mare de opinii. De asemenea, marea majoritate a respondenților (70%) spune că riscul de extindere a războiului este mic și foarte mic.
Larga majoritate a jurnaliștilor consideră că propaganda rusă este prezentă și foarte prezentă în România (87,5%).
Note metodologice
Pe fiecare slide al prezentării, lângă fiecare grafic, se găsește întrebarea completă, așa cum a fost adresată. Cu excepția celor marcate explicit, întrebările au avut, în majoritatea lor, liste de răspunsuri predefinite (liste închise și semi-deschise).
Panelul cuprinde 40 de jurnaliști politici, cu o experiență medie de 20 de ani în presă, și acoperă o diversitate mare de jurnaliști – tip de redacție, tip de jurnaliști, echilibru de gen. Ei provin din 27 de redacții diferite. Nu ne-am propus o reprezentativitate statistică pentru întreaga presă, de aceea nu a fost calculată o eroare statistică standard. Rezultatele sunt exprimate în procente pentru o mai ușoară înțelegere a opiniilor majoritare. În raportul grafic găsiți mai multe date despre structura panelului.
Acest studiu este o inițiativă a Agenției de Rating Politic, după o concepție proprie și nu a fost comandat de nimeni.
Agenția de Rating Politic este o companie cu expertiză și experiență în politică. Facem sondaje și studii pentru politică, consultanță politică, pentru comunicare și campanii electorale. Cu +15 ani de experiență în sondaje de opinie, de la nivel de comune până la sondaje naționale și exit poll-uri. Agenția de Rating Politic are o tradiție de peste 10 ani în a prezenta studii și analize politice de interes public: sondaje de opinie, simulări electorale, rapoarte de analiză electorală și politică, precum și comentarii politice la zi.
Raportul poate fi consultat aici.
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