Agenția de Rating Politic

Periodical national opinion polls “Political Market”

The Political Rating Agency started in 2011 its own periodical national opinion political poll – “Political Market”. We conducted such research in recent key moments of Romanian politics and we looked at the same time to other important impacting issues on the public agenda.

National opinion polls:

February 2011: we anticipated the USL future success just days before the official announcement of its formation.

December 2011: Romanians would participate massively in “primary”-like elections, the majoritarian electoral system preference is for a majoritarian formula with two big parties (45%), Vasile Blaga was named the most important PDL leader (later he became the official leader of the party), massive support for progressive taxation on revenue, only a moderate support for the Rosia Montana gold mining (45% – later a very critical issue on the public agenda).

August 2012: We have correctly indicated the turn-out scenarios and the influence the “boycott” strategy would have in the impeachment Referendum against president Traian Basescu.

Aprili 2013

June 2013

To read all the research Reports please visit the “Reports” section. For translation please contact us.

The first independent national electoral simulation (2012)

The Political Rating Agency conducted the first independent national electoral simulation of Parliament seats allocation using the local elections results (September 2012).

We were the first to announce the large increase in the number of MPs due a very special provision of the electoral law. Our estimate was a plus of 77 seats and was considered impossible at the time, 3 months before parliamentary elections. Actually, after December 2012, the Romanian Parliament has 117 extra seats compared to the “normal” number of electoral districts (seats) designated by law.

The simulation was possible by understanding in detail a very complex electoral formula, by processing millions of data from the June 2012 elections, and by creating and implementing our own customized software for this occasion.

The Political Rating Agency underlined a “hidden” effect of this mix allocation system, and we called it: “the electoral bonus” – an effect which can be found rather in the case of majoritarian systems. Thus, USL, the winner, was estimated to win this “bonus” in the number of seats. It was fully confirmed by the December 10 elections results and all major pundits and analysts embraced the Agency conclusion.

* The picture of the map is copied from this address.

Exit-poll projects – methodology and coordination

The Political Rating Agency was invited to assist with methodology and coordination in exit-poll projects of its clients.

We have been technically involved in such projects at:
– The presidential elections, 2009.
– The Baia Mare mayoral elections, 2011.
– Local elections, Alba County, 2012.

The USL candidates selection (2011-2012)

The campaign strategy was chosen next to other market research companies and agencies to conduct a series of surveys for the official USL candidates’ selection. This project meant the recognition of our Agency results on the Romanian market.

We took part in all stages of methodological design, field interviews, results analysis and presentation, in the candidates’ selection for local elections, May-July 2011, which happened simultaneously in all areas of Romania. All the surveys comprised of face-to-face interviews, in different regions of the country.

The Political Rating Agency worked and works with its own field team. Using a unique and original system we were able verify 100% of the interviews.

Most of the candidates indicated by the Agency with chances for USL and that were officially nominated won the elections or have been very close to win.

During the 2011-2012 USL and PNL selection process The Political Rating Agency covered 11 Counties out of the 42.

2008 Elections – surveys and strategy services

The Political Rating Agency took part in electoral projects in 6 Counties in Romania, both in local and parliamentary elections. We conducted surveys for positioning a number of campaigns, focus-groups for testing messages and slogans, and we coordinated the campaign strategy of a winning candidate in senatorial competition in Teleorman County. It was the first full electoral year at The Political Rating Agency and a starting point.

The first survey fully implemented at The Political Rating Agency estimated correctly a landslide mayoral victory of Mr Cristian Popescu Piedone in the 4th District of Bucharest, 4 months before the official announcement of his candidacy.

Our first full-service integrated campaign for Romeo Nicoara (MP, PNL) in Teleorman, 2008, was a success and the candidate won the competition with one of the biggest number of votes in Romania.

Barometrele nationale de opine publica „Piata politica”

Incepand din 2011 Agentia de Rating Politic a pornit propriul Barometru de opinie publica la nivel national, intitulat “Piata politica”. Am realizat mai multe valuri de cercetari in momente cheie ale scenei politice romanesti, dar am abordat si alte teme de interes public si cu impact direct in agenda politica.

Barometre realizate pana in prezent:

Februarie 2011: am anticipat succesul USL chiar inainte de formarea acesteia.

Decembrie 2011: romanii ar participa masiv in alegeri „interne” de partid, preferinta majoritara pentru un sistem cu doua partide (45%),  suport mare pentru suspendare Basescu (66%), Blaga este identificat drept liderul cel mai important al PDL (ulteriror a devenit liderul partidului), sustinere masiva pentru impozitul progresiv, sustinere moderata pentru proiectul Rosia Montana (45%).

August 2012: am indicat corect scenariile pentru prezenta la vot si influenta noua a strategiei de „boicot”.

Pentru a vedea toate Rapoartele cercetarilor, vizitati sectiunea Studii.

Prima simulare electorala independenta nationala (2012)

Agentia de Rating Politic a realizat prima simulare nationala independenta a alocarii de mandate pentru Parlament pe baza rezultatelor de la alegerile locale, in septembrie 2012.

Am avertizat primii asupra maririi numarului de parlamentari prin efectul legii. Estimarea noastra, pe baza alegerilor locale, a fost 77 de mandate in plus si a fost considerata la acea vreme „imposibila”. In realitate, dupa decembrie 2012, Parlamentul are 117 parlamentari in plus fata de numarul de colegii calculat prin lege.

Simularea a fost facuta pe baza intelegerii amanuntite a unui sistem electoral complex, prin procesarea a milioane de date de la alegerile locale si prin implementarea unui sistem informatic propriu pentru acest proiect.

Agentia de Rating Politic a teoretizat si un efect „pervers” al alocarii de mandate in sistemul romanesc mixt: „prima majoritara” – specifica sistemlor elecorale majoritare. Prin acest efect castigatorul, USL, avea sa castige un bonus important in mandate la redistribuirea nationala. Faptul a fost confirmat din plin de rezultatul alegerilor din 10 decembrie si explicatia data de Agentie a fost preluata de toti comentatorii relevanti.

* Imaginea cu Harta Romaniei a fost prealuata de la aceasta adresa.

Proiecte de exit-poll – metodologie si coordonare

Agentia de Rating Politic a fost invitata sa ofere asistenta prin metodologie si coordonare in mai multe proiecte Exit-poll ale clientilor sai.

Am participat la proiecte de exitpoll, prin componenta tehnica la:
– Alegerile Prezidentiale, 2009.
– Alegerile partiale din Baia Mare, 2011.
– Alegerile locale din Alba, 2012.

Selectia candidatilor USL (2011-2012)

Agentia de Rating Politic a fost cooptata alaturi de alte institute si firme de cercetare de piata pentru realizarea sondajelor de opinie pentru selectia oficiala a candidatilor USL. Este un proiect care a adus consacrarea Agentiei pe piata din Romania.

La selectia candidatilor pentru alegerile locale, desfasurata in mai-iulie 2011, simultan in toate judetele, am participat in toate fazele de la pregatirea metodologica, realizarea interviurilor si pana la prezentarea finala a rezultatelor. Toate sondajele au fost realizate cu intervuri fata in fata, in zone diferite ale tarii.

Agentia de Rating Politic a lucrat si lucreaza cu echipele proprii de operatori, simultan in mai multe regiuni ale Romaniei. Printr-un sistem nou si original am putut verifica in proportie de 100% chestionarele din teren.

Marea majoritate a celor indicati de Agentia de Rating Politic drept candidati viabili pentru USL si care au fost desemnati candidati au castigat alegerile locale sau au fost foarte aproape sa le castige.

In total Agentia de Rating Politic a acoperit 11 judete in procesul de selectie a candidatilor PNL si USL pentru alegerile din 2012.

Alegeri 2008 – sondaje si strategie

Agentia de Rating Politic a fost implicata in proiecte electorale in 6 judete, atat in alegerile locale cat si in cele parlamentare. Am realizat sondaje de opinie de pozitionare pentru mai multe campanii, focus-grupuri pentru fixarea sloganului si a temelor de campanie si am coordonat strategia de campanie a unui candidat castigator intr-un colegiul senatorial din judetul Teleorman. A fost primul an electoral al Agentiei de Rating Politic si un inceput de drum.

Inca de la primul sondaj realizat de echipa Agentiei de Rating Politic am estimat o victorie detasata a lui Cristian Popescu Piedone in sectorul 4 din Bucuresti, cu 4 luni inainte de alegeri si inainte ca acesta sa isi anunte candidatura. A fost un rezultat surpriza pe care putini erau inclinati sa il creada la acel moment.

La prima campanie integrala coordonata de Agentia de Rating Politic in 2008, in Teleorman, candidatul Romeo Nicoara, PNL, a castigat colegiul sau senatorial cu unul din cele mai mari scoruri din tara, atat din PNL cat si dintre toti candidatii.