Client:Inhouse project
Date:September 19, 2013

The first independent national electoral simulation (2012)

The Political Rating Agency conducted the first independent national electoral simulation of Parliament seats allocation using the local elections results (September 2012).

We were the first to announce the large increase in the number of MPs due a very special provision of the electoral law. Our estimate was a plus of 77 seats and was considered impossible at the time, 3 months before parliamentary elections. Actually, after December 2012, the Romanian Parliament has 117 extra seats compared to the “normal” number of electoral districts (seats) designated by law.

The simulation was possible by understanding in detail a very complex electoral formula, by processing millions of data from the June 2012 elections, and by creating and implementing our own customized software for this occasion.

The Political Rating Agency underlined a “hidden” effect of this mix allocation system, and we called it: “the electoral bonus” – an effect which can be found rather in the case of majoritarian systems. Thus, USL, the winner, was estimated to win this “bonus” in the number of seats. It was fully confirmed by the December 10 elections results and all major pundits and analysts embraced the Agency conclusion.

* The picture of the map is copied from this address.